First it was a front page article on the LA Times. Now the Washington Post has a multi-part series on peak oil. Could this mean the MSM is finally coming around? Well, maybe. Usually the language describing peak-oil advocates tends to portray them as weirdos or doomers. Still, these articles have some good information, and hopefully it will keep people from jumping back into their SUVs now that gas prices have fallen back some. Frankly, the language is pretty strong:
There is little prospect that drivers will ever again see gas prices retreat to the levels they enjoyed for much of the last generation.
and this snippet on reserve cushion was striking:
Just two decades ago, the world could pump 15 percent more oil than it needed. Today, that spare production capacity has practically vanished — it’s now about 2 percent beyond the world’s total daily consumption of 85.5 million barrels. That makes the market very sensitive to rumors about anything that might endanger existing production.
But now, the cushion is all but gone. And Saudi Arabia, which is home to what little spare capacity remains, has become reluctant to temper price increases by boosting production. Quite the reverse, the kingdom and its fellow OPEC members have trimmed production on those few occasions when prices showed signs of slipping, most recently in late 2006.
At least this repetition in the MSM should begin to catch the attention of the masses who tend to ignore the question of “where does this come from? How long will it last?” when they pick up a gas pump handle. There is even a decent description of how we are in the mess we are in today:
The low prices of the late 1990s also dampened the impetus for finding new supplies. Oil companies delayed exploration for new fields. Capital spending dropped 15 percent at the biggest oil companies in late 1998 and plunged as much as 70 percent at the smaller ones. Too few drilling rigs were built. And refineries weren’t expanded or upgraded, making it hard for them to use the lower-quality crude oils that have become a larger portion of supplies or to produce the right balance of products as gasoline use is stagnating and diesel fuel use growing.
Investment slackened just as finding new supplies was becoming more difficult and costly. Most of the world’s big, easy-to-tap fields have already been discovered and largely drained.
Perhaps the resulting conclusion, that there are no quick fixes to this problem, and the fact of declining petroleum production must be dealt with, will reach the ears of the general population. I am hopeful, but there is the tendency to tune out any news that might imply that hardship or sacrifices in lifestyle are needed. Also, the time to address these issues in a thoughtful, measured manner has probably passed. But the congresscritters in Washington do not have the stomach or spine to do anything until it reaches a crisis level. I do not really support T Boone’s plan for CNG vehicles, but at least he is getting attention as an oilman who is saying we can’t drill our way out of this mess.
